Module 05 · The fundraising deck~16s dwell · weight 9
Market Size
Prove the opportunity is big enough for venture returns, built bottom-up, with a named beachhead.
Include
- TAM / SAM / SOM, built from the bottom up (customers × price)
- Your specific beachhead segment, the first 100 customers
- Credible, dated sources for the numbers
- The path from beachhead to adjacent segments
Cut
- '1% of a huge market' reasoning
- Top-down billions with no path to capture
- Unsourced analyst figures ('per Gartner' with no year)
- Charts that don't add up to the totals shown
Red flags a reader notices
- '1% of $X billion = huge' math
- No named first customer segment
- TAM includes companies that clearly can't pay you
Pitfalls behind them
- TAM is a Gartner-style top-down number with no path to capture.
- SOM is stated but never tied to the ARR the next round will judge you on.
- The beachhead segment could plausibly reach millions of customers, which means it isn't a beachhead.
60-second self-test
- · Can you write the SOM as (customers × ACV) on a napkin without a calculator?
- · Does the SOM number match the ARR milestone on your Ask slide?
Template
Beachhead: [N customers] × [$Y ACV] = $Z SOM. Adjacent: [next segment] adds $[…]. Total TAM: $[…].
Weak
"The global healthcare market is $500B, we only need 1%."
Strong
"Beachhead: 18,000 remote-native software companies (10–500 FTE) × $11.7K ACV = $210M SOM. Adjacent: design/agency shops add $180M. TAM (global payroll + EOR software): $62B."
Bottom-up math, named segment, and a SOM tied to the ARR milestone the next round will judge Nimbus on.
Quick quiz
1. Which market claim is most credible?
- ○ 'The global market is $500B, we only need 1%.'
- ✓ '18,000 remote-native software cos × $11.7K ACV = $210M SOM.'
Bottom-up with a named segment shows you know your customer.
2. A good beachhead is…
- ○ The largest segment in the market.
- ✓ The segment where you can win the first 100 customers cheaply.
Beachheads are chosen for winnability, not size.